The coronavirus outbreak is demonstrating just how unprepared this administration is to deal with serious crises and the pervasive levels of distrust Americans now have of their government and of national institutions.
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The United States is unprepared for a major crisis. This unpreparedness is partially owed to the extreme incompetence of a President who, as a candidate, promised, “I alone can fix it.” It is also the result of a system of government increasingly gridlocked by polarization and corruption from both parties.
Since coming to office, President Trump has installed as many Directors of Homeland Security as previous presidents have appointed since the cabinet post has existed (2001). Homeland Security is currently the least prepared arm of the Trump administration for a crisis based upon the level of budgeted staffing and administration that remains unfilled. The Trump administration has filled only 35% of its appointed offices. The Department of Justice does not fare much better, with only 48% of its appointed offices filled.
The bulk of these absentee posts, a trend that sweeps through most of the President’s administration, are not the result of delay by the Senate. They are the result of no appointments by the President. Even the Department of Defense has key positions unfilled and unprepared for an emergency. Assistant Secretaries for areas like Intelligence, Personnel and Readiness, Asia and Pacific Security Affairs, Nuclear, and Chemical and Biological Defense are all unfilled by the current administration.
• Tracking the Key Positions of the Trump Administration (Washington Post)
This standard of unpreparedness goes far beyond political appointments. It has taken the role of day to day political and economic policy. In an effort to end the 2008 economic meltdown, the federal government poured money into the US economy. This started under the Bush administration and continued through Obama’s two terms.
Simultaneously the Federal Reserve held interest rates at historic lows. Even after the crisis was over, government spending continued and interest rates remained low. Far from reforming this policy of emergency excess when he came to office, President Trump continued the spending and threatened the Fed when they hinted at raising interest rates.
After fears of the COVID-19 outbreak spread last week, US and global markets saw their biggest declines since 2008 in the wake of a confused and unprepared response. A dive of the leading market indexes hurt investors, but the greater threats are the weakening structural aspects of the global economy. Goldman Sachs issued a report this week explaining US companies will see zero growth in 2020 due to the coronavirus outbreak.
After the Trump trade war with China, US manufacturing entered a mild recession in 2019. This might have improved in 2020, but thanks to the coronavirus crackdown, China recently reported its worst February manufacturing numbers on record. The disruptions in the supply chain will have a ripple effect for slower economic growth, lower profits, and higher unemployment. These are things the US Government is acutely unprepared to deal with.
Historically, the US could weather an economic downturn like what appears to be on the horizon. But after a decade of exorbitant spending and low-interest rates, the measures the federal government would have used to aid in an economic crisis are now overstretched.
The US budget deficit passed $1 trillion this fiscal year. We have had budget deficits reaching this high before, but those were in the midst of an economic crisis. Our current budget deficit was the planned outcome when employment and markets were performing at historical highs.
In other words, we already spent our reserves that might have helped in the face of an economic crisis. This week, the Fed lowered the federal funds rate by .5%. But this step only showed how little room they’ve left for further assistance. After the Fed’s move this week, the federal funds rate stands at 1 to 1.25%. The US is unprepared for an economic crisis today.
The current list of pending crises we could soon face is not new to history. Americans have seen pandemics, wars, refugee crises, economic downturns, and everything else before. But we have never been so uniquely positioned to be so fully unprepared, with an absence of leadership in the face of the growing list of potential crises.
President Trump is not the only gap on this front. Americans do not trust their leaders in Congress either. They do not trust the media. When President Trump explains his administration has taken steps to contain and prevent the spread of COVID-19, he has very little legitimacy with most Americans. When the Democrats and media mock the President’s lack of preparedness and leadership, they fail to realize their own lack of credibility before the American public.
In a 2019 Gallup Poll, 48% of Americans said they had very little trust in Congress. Only 4% said they had a great deal of trust in Congress. The President scored slightly better, with only 38% saying they had very little trust in the leader of the Executive branch. More than 40% said they had very little trust in the media.
John Jay noted at the founding of the American government, “Distrust naturally creates distrust, and by nothing is goodwill and kind conduct more speedily changed.” This lack of trust in our leadership and institutions that pervades American society today is symptomatic of a deeper sickness within the political system as a whole.
The next crisis may not be the greatest threat. The greatest threat is the deep levels of unpreparedness that stretch unseen but far and wide within our nation’s government. This makes us vulnerable to the looming crisis we will be unexpectedly forced to confront tomorrow or the day after.
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