There’s no argument that convinces rank-and-file Republicans and bread-and-butter conservatives to vote for Biden, even if they’re Trump skeptical.
This is an opinion article from the editor, expanded from a segment of the April 24th issue of From the Hawk’s Nest, a bi-weekly newsletter.
Something I began talking about when I attended the Summit on Principled Conservatism and, subsequently, have mentioned often in my articles and podcasts is, whatever principled conservatism does, it needs to provide an off-ramp from Trumpism for the rest of conservatism or it will never be relevant.
I don’t claim to know what will work as an off-ramp. But I can be relatively certain of what kinds of things, and what type of politician, will not provide that off-ramp. Specific to our current electoral season, I can confidently say that Joe Biden is not going to provide an off-ramp from Trumpism.
Unless you see Trump as a truly existential threat to the country, there is simply no center-right argument for voting for Joe Biden. There is nothing about his platform, his policy proposals, or the steadily more progressive trend of his party that can be reconciled with conservative principles in any way.
Nothing short of believing that Trump really is an existential threat can justify voting for Joe Biden and offering assent to a progressive mandate that’s poised to expand the size of government in ways not seen since the New Deal and the Great Society.
Granted, there are many dissident Republicans who do see Trump as such a threat. There is a growing movement of former Republicans and independent conservatives, centrists, and moderates who are legitimately concerned with the consequences of a Donald Trump second-term.
They have become convinced that they must remove Trump at all costs. They believe they have no choice but to “put the country first” and vote for Joe Biden to save the nation from its present calamity.
In the view of these dissident Republicans, conservative principles as applied towards policy and governance must wait for a political season where the consequences of poor character aren’t so dire.
While Biden’s agenda would be unfortunate for the country and damaging to limited government ideals, dissident Republicans don’t believe he would put the country itself at risk. They believe they can oppose Biden’s platform effectively once they’ve helped restore proper political order. In 2024, they hope to put forward a principled conservative candidate who can lead a revived conservative movement towards making Biden a one-term president.
This argument is all fine and well for ‘Never Trump’ conservatives who’ve already stepped off the Trump train (or never got on it in the first place). I’m personally unconvinced events would play out as they assume, but I respect their outlook.
However, the foundation of their argument is their belief that Donald Trump is an existential threat. An argument for voting for Biden has no planks of logic or reasoning when made to someone who is not convinced that Trump is such a threat, even if they’re an opponent of Trump and Trumpism (as I am).
And, the vast majority of rank-and-file conservatives and Republicans remain unconvinced that Trump is any kind of threat all, let alone an existential one. Even those who can be convinced that Trump is out of his depth and causing severe damage to the image of conservatism are not going to be convinced to cross over the line and vote for Joe Biden. If “Trump the existential threat” is the only card you have to play, they’re going to look at you like you’ve drunk far too long and heartily from the #resistance well.
This is where my argument for a credible third-party or independent candidate comes into play. Such a candidate, holding firm to conservative principles, gives people like me, who are bread and butter, died-in-the-wool conservatives, a place to hang our hats and be part of the process without endorsing an approach to government that goes against everything we believe.
I think such a candidate does have a chance in our unique and unprecedented political environment. But even if they don’t, a substantial percentage taken from the main party candidates can go a long way towards solving the dilemma of mandates. I would be far less concerned with a Biden presidency, or with a second-term from Trump for that matter, if either got elected without a true and solid mandate from the electorate.
But regardless of all these arguments, the goal every Trump skeptical conservative can agree on is a rejuvenated and resurgent principled conservative movement. While I’m still not convinced, let’s consider for a moment that a Biden victory this fall really is the only path towards that goal. Even with this temporary concession, I still have two questions. First, does every principled conservative have to fall on their sword to elect Biden? And second, must we also shun what possibilities might be at hand to reclaim our fellow conservatives now, for fear it could damage Biden’s chances?
I don’t begrudge those who choose the Corbulo path in their opposition to Donald Trump. But I am doing everything I can to look beyond this political moment and plot a course that doesn’t compromise the integrity of my ideals. I am trying to speak to the hearts and souls of mainstream conservatives now, not later. I am trying to build the off-ramp from Trumpism while we are yet in this moment because I’m not convinced we can build it later.
I still remain unconvinced that Trump is an existential threat to the country. However, I do think Trumpism is an existential threat to the long-term viability of conservative ideals. And, I have a growing fear that in their zeal to resist Donald Trump, “Never Trump” conservatives may be burning the last bridge back from Trumpism for the Republican Party and the conservative movement.
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